Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 13.269031 15.163946 17.218544 19.609857 22.314688 25.277370 28.766607
2024-10-20 10.264239 12.753665 15.669162 19.328310 23.790515 29.047452 35.702802
2024-10-27 8.324214 10.918605 14.111812 18.317981 23.698813 30.336854 39.131554
2024-11-03 7.446104 10.236981 13.822996 18.747557 25.311537 33.734008 45.332748
2024-11-10 6.776829 9.704251 13.608155 19.165092 26.837455 37.018415 51.507805
2024-11-17 6.023109 8.956698 13.005555 18.962483 27.457282 39.081223 56.128116
2024-11-24 5.346397 8.234329 12.349230 18.591234 27.761724 40.669409 60.126528
2024-12-01 4.882643 7.768135 12.002270 18.608394 28.582752 42.989001 65.256636
2024-12-08 4.557756 7.473881 11.871610 18.914367 29.820197 45.951296 71.467208
2024-12-15 4.231424 7.142518 11.648866 19.047270 30.782381 48.536258 77.238922
2024-12-22 3.876465 6.729922 11.260361 18.879394 31.247824 50.370684 81.941718
2024-12-29 3.635508 6.480716 11.106775 19.063914 32.264040 53.090249 88.150948
2025-01-05 3.485183 6.377637 11.192432 19.660436 34.010796 57.106601 96.739210
2025-01-12 3.204189 6.023175 10.830091 19.478591 34.456985 59.056355 102.097304
2025-01-19 2.808364 5.426622 10.002708 18.429247 33.350104 58.364240 103.002233
2025-01-26 2.690171 5.325048 10.030384 18.871937 34.832023 62.070027 111.513320
2025-02-02 2.577309 5.222501 10.045912 19.288517 36.285782 65.797150 120.254577
2025-02-09 2.386824 4.954071 9.736514 19.085839 36.608679 67.570017 125.665238
2025-02-16 2.191388 4.658237 9.352129 18.711915 36.586216 68.718512 130.010207
2025-02-23 2.061883 4.482776 9.182208 18.729307 37.284963 71.186182 136.854470
2025-03-02 1.976514 4.390015 9.164674 19.037125 38.546607 74.738199 145.865467
2025-03-09 1.877670 4.260303 9.063613 19.170862 39.476286 77.717625 153.957199
2025-03-16 1.754483 4.067753 8.821105 19.001946 39.798171 79.564137 159.993337